TrajectoryCapability
Agents are crossing from demos to real work
7 beatsUpdated todayAgents now handle real volume in customer support, coding, and operations at major enterprises — the demo-versus-production debate is over. The new debate is reliability: as agents take on more autonomous decisions, the frequency and cost of their failures has become the question that decides how fast the rollout continues.
The cost of AI is collapsing
6 beatsUpdated todayThe 38-month price compression has been dramatic. GPT-4's launch price of $30/$60 per million tokens has fallen to single-digit prices for equivalent or better capability. This collapse is what enabled AI to move from research demos to mass deployment. The open question is whether prices continue falling or plateau as frontier models become more expensive to train.
The race for the most capable AI
9 beatsUpdated todayThe capability race has become genuinely multi-way. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and xAI all have models competitive on different dimensions — coding, reasoning, multimodal, cost, and open availability. No single company holds a clear across-the-board lead, and the advantage shifts quarterly depending on which capability buyers prioritize.